Short memos on macro, rates, and credit—what’s priced, what’s not, and what would change my mind.
Three lanes. Each post is tagged, so you can scan fast.
Growth/inflation, policy reaction‑functions, and what’s driving risk appetite.
Term premium, curve shape, Canada vs U.S. differentials, and key “what would change my mind” levels.
Spreads, liquidity, positioning, and when “higher for longer” becomes a real constraint.
Short reads. Clear structure. Consistent format.
A clean checklist: inflation momentum, labour slack, and where the risk is asymmetric.
How I think about the 2s/10s spread, CAD sensitivity, and duration risk.
A simple framework for spreads vs growth risk—plus what I’d watch for stress.