Research

Short, structured memos on credit, markets, and strategy. Each post follows the same format: thesis, framework, what to watch, and a bottom line.

Published memos

A framework to separate "rate-sensitive" narratives from balance-sheet reality — and what to watch next.

When stable revenue hides fragile cash flow — and how to spot it quickly.

A decision memo for make/partner/acquire — plus common traps that destroy value.